Possible effects of global change on the Karner blue butterfly and its host plan, wild Lupine
Grants/Fellowships in support:
2010. The National Parks Service; Climate Change Response., US Geological Survey.
Project Overview:
One of the few remaining populations of the Karner blue butterfly (Lycaeides melissa samuelis) (Kbb) resides at Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore (INDU), currently the southernmost locale for this federally endangered species. In the Northern hemisphere, such southerly populations within a species’ range are often thought to be particularly vulnerable to decline with climate change. At the time of the Kbb’s listing (1992), the INDU population was among the largest extant populations (ca. 5000-10,000 butterflies). Despite extensive research on the butterfly’s habitat use patterns at INDU, results corroborated by studies at other locales, and ongoing habitat management based on those research results, overall Kbb population counts at INDU declined 81% from 1999-2008. Declines have also occurred at other sites across the Kbb’s range. In order to investigate potential effects of climate change on Kbb populations with the objective of informing conservation efforts, we conducted a suite of experiments utilizing in-situ experiments, simulations of future climatic regimes within growth chamber facilities, environmental niche modeling, and range-wide genetics sampling and 454 sequencing. Acquired data were used to inform demographic models with the ultimate goal of determining the most influential factors in population persistence or decline.
Activities Conducted:
Personnel hiring and management
Range-wide genetics/genomics sampling
Growth chamber climate simulations
In-situ snowcover and emergence experiment
Environmental Niche Modeling:
2010. The National Parks Service; Climate Change Response., US Geological Survey.
Project Overview:
One of the few remaining populations of the Karner blue butterfly (Lycaeides melissa samuelis) (Kbb) resides at Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore (INDU), currently the southernmost locale for this federally endangered species. In the Northern hemisphere, such southerly populations within a species’ range are often thought to be particularly vulnerable to decline with climate change. At the time of the Kbb’s listing (1992), the INDU population was among the largest extant populations (ca. 5000-10,000 butterflies). Despite extensive research on the butterfly’s habitat use patterns at INDU, results corroborated by studies at other locales, and ongoing habitat management based on those research results, overall Kbb population counts at INDU declined 81% from 1999-2008. Declines have also occurred at other sites across the Kbb’s range. In order to investigate potential effects of climate change on Kbb populations with the objective of informing conservation efforts, we conducted a suite of experiments utilizing in-situ experiments, simulations of future climatic regimes within growth chamber facilities, environmental niche modeling, and range-wide genetics sampling and 454 sequencing. Acquired data were used to inform demographic models with the ultimate goal of determining the most influential factors in population persistence or decline.
Activities Conducted:
Personnel hiring and management
Range-wide genetics/genomics sampling
- Aided in the design of a non-destructive sampling technique utilizing wing vein tissue
- Trained field coordinators from multiple agencies to collect and submit samples for sequencing
- Collaborated with USGS Leetown Science Center to obtain 454 sequencing data for use in population isolation estimates
Growth chamber climate simulations
- Designed and constructed custom growth chamber system based on MATLAB scripting
- Established captive colony of Kbb from INDU population utilizing “No-take” oviposited eggs.
- Reared colony cohorts under 4 scenarios: current climate, +2 deg C., +4 deg. C and +6 deg. C.
- Gathered demographic data for each individual at each life-stage including development time, weight, and morphometrics.
- Statistically analyzed data for differences between climatic treatment cohorts
In-situ snowcover and emergence experiment
- Deployed eggs at varying heights above ground overwinter to investigate thermal tolerance limits of insulating snow cover. Monitored for hatch date and survivorship.
- Analyzed data for differences between spatial locations across the study area in addition to height above ground.
Environmental Niche Modeling:
- Utilized a number of ENM platforms and ArcGIS to determine the potential environmental niche for each population of Kbb across the range to investigate potential niche isolation.
